Water AetherwingTier 1
at 2026/05/02 RiRiCO 店冠賽
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 15.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.3% | -0.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.8% | +0.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.3% | -23.6 |
| Water Neos | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.5% | +5.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.3% | -11.2 |
| Slimes | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.2 |
| Water Fractal | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flash Grenade | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sleety Retreat | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rescue the Heir | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Haunt Reminiscence | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dodge Roll | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Scarcity | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 |