Fire SuzakuTier 2
at 2026/05/02 RiRiCO 店冠賽
decks
2
(10.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
4-7-0
overall winrate
36.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.4%
avg ELO -3.3 per match
expected value
47.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1361
· median 1361
· range 1267–1455
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1095
Q1 1271
Q3 1411
1694
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 15.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 35.8% | -10.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.7% | +23.6 |
| Water Neos | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Slimes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.9 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
