EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Champs at TFB.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Razorgale | 2 | 13.3% | 8 | 87.5% | 67.2% | 57.5% | 55.3% | 1554 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 75.0% | 63.0% | 55.0% | 55.6% | 1409 | — |
| 3 | Water Genbu | 2 | 13.3% | 8 | 62.5% | 56.5% | 52.8% | 51.9% | 1423 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 6.7% | 3 | 66.7% | 67.4% | 50.0% | 55.7% | 1284 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 47.1% | 50.0% | 48.8% | 1452 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Exia | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 43.2% | 50.0% | 47.3% | 1384 | — |
| 7 | Water Whirlpool Mill | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 43.2% | 50.0% | 47.3% | 1384 | — |
| 8 | Wind Allies | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 52.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | 1262 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 6.7% | 5 | 60.0% | 53.1% | 50.0% | 49.0% | 1412 | — |
| 10 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 34.8% | 44.0% | 44.3% | 1419 | — |
| 11 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 6.7% | 5 | 20.0% | 42.0% | 43.3% | 46.2% | 1268 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 33.5% | 41.3% | 39.2% | 1404 | — |
| 13 | Fire Exia | 1 | 6.7% | 1 | 0.0% | 46.5% | 40.0% | 46.5% | 1032 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 0.0% | 39.9% | 40.0% | 45.6% | 1136 | ↓ low |