← Card Merchant Christchurch RDO Regionals
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Card Merchant Christchurch RDO Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 2.2% | 6 | 83.3% | 68.2% | 55.6% | 56.5% | 1381 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Oblation | 2 | 4.4% | 12 | 70.8% | 56.4% | 55.4% | 54.3% | 1367 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 2.2% | 6 | 66.7% | 64.0% | 55.0% | 55.4% | 1247 | — |
| 4 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 2.2% | 6 | 75.0% | 63.1% | 53.6% | 54.2% | 1354 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 5 | 11.1% | 26 | 63.5% | 52.0% | 53.3% | 50.4% | 1362 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 2.2% | 4 | 25.0% | 34.4% | 52.5% | 49.7% | 1309 | — |
| 7 | Water Allies | 1 | 2.2% | 6 | 66.7% | 49.0% | 52.5% | 49.2% | 1408 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 2.2% | 6 | 66.7% | 49.8% | 52.0% | 48.4% | 1458 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Slimes | 5 | 11.1% | 25 | 52.0% | 50.4% | 51.5% | 50.4% | 1262 | — |
| 10 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 2.2% | 6 | 50.0% | 47.1% | 51.0% | 51.9% | 1405 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 2.2% | 6 | 83.3% | 61.4% | 50.9% | 49.8% | 1402 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 4.4% | 10 | 50.0% | 53.6% | 50.7% | 52.3% | 1277 | — |
| 13 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 2.2% | 6 | 50.0% | 46.7% | 50.6% | 49.7% | 1316 | — |
| 14 | Water Tera Kongming | 1 | 2.2% | 6 | 50.0% | 52.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | 1229 | — |
| 15 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 4.4% | 12 | 62.5% | 60.7% | 49.6% | 51.4% | 1297 | — |
| 16 | Water Neos | 1 | 2.2% | 6 | 50.0% | 67.1% | 49.5% | 56.1% | 1093 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Luxem Mordred | 1 | 2.2% | 6 | 50.0% | 53.3% | 49.2% | 50.5% | 1204 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Suited | 1 | 2.2% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.9% | 49.1% | 51.5% | 1168 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 4.4% | 12 | 41.7% | 42.0% | 48.9% | 48.9% | 1236 | — |
| 20 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 2.2% | 6 | 58.3% | 46.3% | 48.8% | 46.4% | 1404 | ↑ top |
| 21 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 2.2% | 6 | 50.0% | 59.8% | 47.5% | 51.5% | 1173 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Water Fractal | 1 | 2.2% | 5 | 30.0% | 51.2% | 45.4% | 51.6% | 1145 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Slimes | 2 | 4.4% | 9 | 27.8% | 49.8% | 44.7% | 50.0% | 1127 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Chess | 3 | 6.7% | 15 | 36.7% | 45.5% | 44.6% | 47.2% | 1181 | ↓ low |
| 25 | Water Crux Assassin | 1 | 2.2% | 5 | 20.0% | 34.3% | 44.3% | 44.5% | 1146 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 2.2% | 5 | 20.0% | 34.7% | 44.2% | 44.9% | 1147 | ↓ low |
| 27 | Water Genbu | 1 | 2.2% | 5 | 20.0% | 35.0% | 42.5% | 43.3% | 1163 | ↓ low |
| 28 | Fire Exia | 1 | 2.2% | 6 | 16.7% | 35.1% | 42.2% | 44.1% | 1154 | ↓ low |
| 29 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 2.2% | 3 | 0.0% | 38.1% | 40.0% | 45.7% | 1122 | ↓ low |
| 30 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 2.2% | 3 | 0.0% | 21.7% | 40.0% | 37.4% | 1232 | — |