EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 美樂地 GA店冠賽 20260509.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 1 | 7.7% | 6 | 83.3% | 63.1% | 59.3% | 55.2% | 1528 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 7.7% | 5 | 70.0% | 63.5% | 55.0% | 55.4% | 1322 | — |
| 3 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 7.7% | 5 | 60.0% | 48.4% | 54.7% | 51.3% | 1535 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 62.5% | 59.5% | 54.0% | 54.9% | 1276 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 7.7% | 5 | 60.0% | 45.3% | 54.0% | 48.9% | 1591 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 7.7% | 5 | 60.0% | 56.7% | 52.0% | 52.4% | 1379 | — |
| 7 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 37.5% | 46.9% | 50.0% | 50.8% | 1224 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Arcane | 2 | 15.4% | 9 | 50.0% | 46.3% | 49.5% | 47.8% | 1319 | — |
| 9 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 15.4% | 7 | 28.6% | 47.5% | 45.7% | 50.4% | 1221 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Genbu | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 43.0% | 45.0% | 45.6% | 1309 | — |
| 11 | Water Whirlpool Mill | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 43.0% | 45.0% | 45.6% | 1309 | — |
| 12 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.0% | 43.0% | 1247 | ↓ low |