EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 100.0% | 59.1% | 68.6% | 56.2% | 1642 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Aetherwing | 3 | 25.0% | 12 | 62.5% | 69.6% | 57.2% | 61.2% | 1338 | — |
| 3 | Water Fractal | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 75.0% | 57.5% | 51.4% | 49.7% | 1418 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 16.7% | 8 | 43.8% | 52.0% | 46.5% | 49.4% | 1283 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Razorgale | 2 | 16.7% | 8 | 50.0% | 42.7% | 46.2% | 40.7% | 1404 | — |
| 6 | Fire Crescendo | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 51.0% | 44.0% | 49.2% | 1198 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 30.6% | 41.1% | 38.2% | 1427 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 20.5% | 40.0% | 37.5% | 1387 | — |