← Aria's Birthday Tournament!

SlimesTier 1

at Aria's Birthday Tournament!

decks
5 (25.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19 13-4-2
overall winrate
73.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.9% avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
60.4% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.0% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1294 · median 1202 · range 1166–1477 (5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1108 Q1 1192 Q3 1345 1477
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 40% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Allies 25.0% 8 6-2-0 75.0% 66.7% 51.6% +0.8
Fire Arcane 10.0% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 51.6% +1.5
Fire Aggro 5.0% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.9% -0.1
Fire Crux Merlin 5.0% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 5.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 51.0% +1.6
Norm Crux Merlin 5.0% 0
Water Allies 5.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.9% +1.5
Water Ravishing Mill 5.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 51.0% +1.6
Wind Neos 5.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% -0.0
Wind Shadowstrike 5.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 49.3% -1.1
Wind Slice & Dice 5.0% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 50.6% +0.6
Decklists · 5 from this event

The 5 public Slimes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Ethereal Slime, Dungeon Guide, Covenant of Thorns. Losers more often ran: Blue Slime, Baby Blue Slime, Slime Nexus.

Played more by winners
Ethereal Slime
Winning decks ran 3.5 copies on average, losing decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Dungeon Guide
Winning decks ran 4.0 copies on average, losing decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Covenant of Thorns
Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Stonescale Band
Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Escape the Wreckage
Winning decks ran 3.0 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Vampiric Slime
Winning decks ran 1.5 copies on average, losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Played more by losers
Blue Slime
Losing decks ran 3.0 copies on average, winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Baby Blue Slime
Losing decks ran 2.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Slime Nexus
Losing decks ran 0.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Key Slime Pudding
Losing decks ran 0.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Losing decks ran 0.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Song of Nurturing
Losing decks ran 2.0 copies on average, winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Show all 51 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Ethereal Slime +0.75 3 0 1
Dungeon Guide +0.75 3 0 1
Blue Slime -0.75 0 3 1
Covenant of Thorns +0.75 3 0 1
Baby Blue Slime -0.75 0 3 0
Stonescale Band +0.75 3 0 1
Slime Nexus -0.75 0 3 0
Key Slime Pudding -0.50 1 3 0
Green Slime -0.50 0 2 2
Slime Eruption +0.50 2 0 2
Baby Green Slime +0.50 2 0 2
Gaia's Blessing +0.50 2 0 2
Escape the Wreckage +0.50 3 1 0
Idle Thoughts -0.50 0 2 0
Smack with Flute -0.50 0 2 0
Bauble of Mending -0.50 0 2 0
Life Essence Amulet -0.50 0 2 0
Crimson Protective Trinket -0.50 0 2 0
Azure Protective Trinket -0.50 0 2 0
Vampiric Slime +0.25 2 1 0
Horn of Beastcalling +0.25 2 1 0
Water Resonance Bauble -0.25 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket -0.25 1 2 1
Fire Resonance Bauble -0.25 0 1 0
Grand Crusader's Ring +0.25 2 1 0
Slime King +0.25 2 1 1
Slimeshield -0.25 0 1 3
Gather Slimes -0.25 0 1 3
Slime Totem -0.25 0 1 3
Deflecting Edge -0.25 0 1 0
Wind Resonance Bauble -0.25 0 1 0
Bestial Frenzy +0.25 2 1 0
Verdant Slime +0.25 2 1 1
Twilight Slime +0.25 2 1 0
Beastbond Ears -0.25 0 1 3
Tithe Proclamation +0.25 1 0 0
Blissful Calling +0.25 1 0 0
Smoke Bombs +0.25 1 0 0
Nullifying Lantern +0.25 1 0 0
Song of Nurturing -0.25 1 2 0
Quicksilver Grail +0.25 1 0 0
Red Slime +0.25 2 1 0
Tariff Ring -0.25 1 2 0
Resolute Stand +0.25 1 0 0
Exorcise Curses +0.25 1 0 0
Safeguard Amulet +0.25 1 0 0
Bedivere, Woodland Overseer +0.25 1 0 0
Beastbond Paws +0.00 1 1 2
Beastbond Boots +0.00 1 1 0
Slime's Blessing +0.00 2 2 0
Lustrous Slime +0.00 1 1 2

JSON: /api/events/5435/archetypes/Slimes