Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Aria's Birthday Tournament!
decks
1
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-1-1
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.1%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
52.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1445
· median 1445
· range 1445–1445
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1108
Q1 1192
Q3 1345
1477
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Wind Allies | 25.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Norm Crux Merlin | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Ravishing Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
