← Game Nut Mercurial Heart Store Champ
Fire ArcaneTier 2
at Game Nut Mercurial Heart Store Champ
decks
2
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
2-5-0
overall winrate
28.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.1%
avg ELO -6.0 per match
expected value
45.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1152
· median 1152
· range 1146–1159
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1116
Q1 1154
Q3 1279
1454
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.1 |
| Wind Diana | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
