← Game Nut Mercurial Heart Store Champ
Water AlliesTier 1
at Game Nut Mercurial Heart Store Champ
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -3.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Water Neos | 4.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.7% | +11.2 |
| Wind Diana | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Wind Silvie | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Genesis Aegis | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Allied Warpriestess | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Invigorated Slash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Corhazi's Chosen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Take Point | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vicious Slice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |