← Store Championship @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Store Championship @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
decks
3
(8.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
10-6-1
overall winrate
61.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.3%
avg ELO +3.3 per match
expected value
51.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1330
· median 1341
· range 1051–1599
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1124
Q3 1361
1599
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 17.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.0% | -2.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.7% | +5.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.7% | +1.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.2 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Slimes | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.9% | +9.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
