← Store Championship @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Store Championship @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
decks
4
(11.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
23
13-9-1
overall winrate
58.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.8%
avg ELO +1.4 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1187
· median 1099
· range 994–1558
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1124
Q3 1361
1599
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 17.1% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -1.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.3% | -5.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Slimes | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +2.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.7% | +25.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.8 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
