← Store Championship @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Store Championship @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 17.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -2.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Slimes | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.1% | +22.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -3.3 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Krustallan Ruins | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Waverider Protector | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Glitter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hypothermia | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |