← Grand Archive Store Championships at High Market Online <3
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Grand Archive Store Championships at High Market Online <3
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 21.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.6% | +6.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 13.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Wind Allies | 13.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Slimes | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Wind Arisanna | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Worn Gearblade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Smash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |