← HeldenTaverne Jena Store Championship Mercurial Heart
Fire Umbra RangerTier 2
at HeldenTaverne Jena Store Championship Mercurial Heart
decks
1
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.0%
avg ELO +2.6 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1157
· median 1157
· range 1157–1157
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1109
Q1 1185
Q3 1350
1510
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 25.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.3% | -10.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Ranger decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
