← The Card Shop PLT MRC Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at The Card Shop PLT MRC Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Slimes 1 4.0% 8 93.8% 76.6% 62.2% 61.4% 1418 ↑ top
2 Water Crux Lorraine 1 4.0% 8 68.8% 59.4% 57.0% 55.7% 1391 ↑ top
3 Slimes 5 20.0% 24 60.4% 61.9% 56.2% 57.3% 1314
4 Wind Shadowstrike 2 8.0% 10 50.0% 42.3% 50.0% 45.2% 1499 ↑ top
5 Fire Aggro 2 8.0% 12 54.2% 51.2% 49.9% 49.8% 1270
6 Wind Crux Lorraine 1 4.0% 5 30.0% 46.1% 48.3% 50.1% 1354 ↑ top
7 Water Allies 5 20.0% 23 43.5% 34.6% 46.8% 41.6% 1272
8 Fire Arcane 1 4.0% 4 25.0% 47.2% 45.6% 50.5% 1221 ↓ low
9 Wind Allies 5 20.0% 17 38.2% 48.6% 45.4% 50.2% 1200 ↓ low
10 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 4.0% 5 30.0% 39.3% 41.7% 42.4% 1405 ↑ top
11 Fire Lorraine 1 4.0% 4 12.5% 40.2% 40.7% 45.2% 1122 ↓ low