← Mercurial Heart Store Championship
Wind AlliesTier 2
at Mercurial Heart Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 37.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -0.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.2% | -15.2 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleansing Reunion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Armored Valkyrie | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Displace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vigilant Sentry | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rallied Advance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manufacture Cell | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Second Wind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cell Vanguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercurial Heart | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windpiercer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |