EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Allies | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 80.0% | 53.2% | 59.4% | 52.5% | 1385 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 7.1% | 10 | 70.0% | 62.1% | 59.0% | 56.9% | 1312 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 70.0% | 59.5% | 57.5% | 55.7% | 1321 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 70.0% | 58.4% | 57.0% | 55.6% | 1310 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 3 | 10.7% | 12 | 58.3% | 56.8% | 56.5% | 55.7% | 1212 | — |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 7.1% | 11 | 72.7% | 60.3% | 53.2% | 51.1% | 1426 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 56.5% | 51.1% | 51.5% | 1451 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Overlord | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 20.0% | 35.7% | 50.0% | 50.9% | 1059 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Slimes | 1 | 3.6% | 7 | 71.4% | 61.7% | 50.0% | 49.8% | 1253 | — |
| 10 | Wind Allies | 2 | 7.1% | 11 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 49.4% | 49.4% | 1216 | — |
| 11 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 3.6% | 6 | 66.7% | 53.0% | 48.6% | 46.8% | 1231 | — |
| 12 | Slimes | 5 | 17.9% | 22 | 43.2% | 48.6% | 47.1% | 48.6% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Crux Mage | 1 | 3.6% | 6 | 41.7% | 46.3% | 46.9% | 47.5% | 1130 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Beast | 1 | 3.6% | 4 | 12.5% | 36.2% | 45.6% | 47.1% | 1001 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Tera Tamer | 1 | 3.6% | 4 | 12.5% | 36.2% | 45.6% | 47.1% | 1001 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Water Crux Merlin | 1 | 3.6% | 6 | 50.0% | 51.9% | 45.1% | 46.4% | 1006 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 3.6% | 3 | 33.3% | 39.3% | 45.0% | 42.9% | 1381 | ↑ top |
| 18 | Wind Neos | 2 | 7.1% | 10 | 20.0% | 31.3% | 44.4% | 45.1% | 1094 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Fire Arcane | 2 | 7.1% | 9 | 22.2% | 38.5% | 41.7% | 44.6% | 1150 | ↓ low |