← ⚙ Grand Archive - Mercurial Heart Store Championship ⚙
Fire ArcaneTier 2
at ⚙ Grand Archive - Mercurial Heart Store Championship ⚙
decks
1
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-3-1
overall winrate
12.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
33.5%
avg ELO -10.6 per match
expected value
42.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1301
· median 1301
· range 1301–1301
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1148
Q1 1202
Q3 1314
1535
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Water Allies | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.4 |
| Wind Diana | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Wind Slimes | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Arcane decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
