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Fire AggroTier 1
at Good Games Town Hall: MRC Regionals
decks
3
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
12-5-1
overall winrate
69.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
63.2%
avg ELO +5.2 per match
expected value
53.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1327
· median 1293
· range 1257–1431
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1210
Q3 1437
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 22.2% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 37.2% | -7.4 |
| Wind Allies | 14.8% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 65.3% | +8.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Wind Lorraine | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 3.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 66.4% | +12.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.3 |
| Wind Slimes | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
