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Fire Crux MerlinTier 2
at Good Games Town Hall: MRC Regionals
decks
1
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.1%
avg ELO +3.5 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1239
· median 1239
· range 1239–1239
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1210
Q3 1437
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 22.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.8% | +4.6 |
| Wind Allies | 14.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +2.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 3.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Wind Overlord | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
