← Good Games Town Hall: MRC Regionals
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Good Games Town Hall: MRC Regionals
decks
2
(7.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
1-7-0
overall winrate
12.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
33.7%
avg ELO -7.8 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1218
· median 1218
· range 972–1464
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1210
Q3 1437
1702
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 22.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.5% | -12.0 |
| Wind Allies | 14.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.6 |
| Wind Lorraine | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.9% | +20.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Wind Overlord | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
