EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Regionals MRC.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 70.0% | 60.1% | 60.3% | 58.2% | 1317 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Allies | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 70.0% | 55.1% | 59.6% | 55.4% | 1281 | — |
| 3 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 90.0% | 58.8% | 58.9% | 54.1% | 1599 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Slimes | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 90.0% | 67.2% | 58.9% | 57.3% | 1458 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Allies | 2 | 7.7% | 10 | 55.0% | 56.3% | 56.9% | 56.3% | 1294 | — |
| 6 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 60.0% | 50.7% | 55.6% | 54.1% | 1354 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 50.0% | 53.1% | 53.1% | 55.5% | 1229 | — |
| 8 | Fire Arcane | 2 | 7.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 36.9% | 52.5% | 53.4% | 1230 | — |
| 9 | Fire Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 51.9% | 52.5% | 54.8% | 1162 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Slimes | 4 | 15.4% | 19 | 47.4% | 44.8% | 52.3% | 50.1% | 1196 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 50.0% | 44.6% | 49.2% | 46.5% | 1172 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 41.8% | 48.3% | 47.6% | 1402 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 51.6% | 48.0% | 50.3% | 1404 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Fire Erupting | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 60.0% | 62.6% | 47.3% | 50.9% | 1405 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Slimes | 5 | 19.2% | 17 | 35.3% | 40.4% | 43.5% | 44.9% | 1205 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Wind Overlord | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 56.7% | 42.8% | 49.3% | 1051 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Astra Arisanna | 1 | 3.8% | 4 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 36.7% | 37.4% | 1130 | ↓ low |