← Mercurial Heart Store Championship

Fire SlimesTier 2

at Mercurial Heart Store Championship

decks
3 (37.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5 1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
32.6% avg ELO -10.0 per match
expected value
41.7% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.2% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1250 · median 1200 · range 1158–1393 (3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1097 Q1 1189 Q3 1402 1678
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 33% in the bottom. This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Shadowstrike 37.5% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 38.8% -8.3
Water Zander 12.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.0% -11.1
Wind Allies 12.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.3% -14.0
Decklists · 3 from this event

The 3 public Fire Slimes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand +1.00 1 0 0
Vampiric Slime +1.00 1 0 0
Beastbond Paws +1.00 1 0 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +1.00 1 0 0
Ordinary Bear -1.00 0 1 0
Grand Crusader's Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Slime King +1.00 1 0 0
Beastbond Boots -1.00 0 1 0
Lustrous Slime -1.00 0 1 0
Hymn of Gaia's Grace -1.00 0 1 0
Stalwart Shieldmate +1.00 1 0 0
Bestial Frenzy -1.00 0 1 0
Shout at Your Pets -1.00 0 1 0
Turbo Charge -1.00 0 1 0
Reprogram +1.00 1 0 0
Verdant Scepter +1.00 1 0 0
Verdant Slime -1.00 0 1 0
Escape the Wreckage +1.00 1 0 0
Twilight Slime -1.00 0 1 0
Beastbond Ears -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/6188/archetypes/Fire Slimes