← LUCKY VAULT STORE CHAMPS! 7/13/24
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at LUCKY VAULT STORE CHAMPS! 7/13/24
decks
1
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
4-0-2
overall winrate
83.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
72.7%
avg ELO +12.1 per match
expected value
60.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
61.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1465
· median 1465
· range 1465–1465
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1052
Q1 1183
Q3 1403
1638
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 25.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.4% | +16.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Water Neos | 12.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.4% | +10.0 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.7 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Ravishing Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
