← LUCKY VAULT STORE CHAMPS! 7/13/24
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at LUCKY VAULT STORE CHAMPS! 7/13/24
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 12.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.5% | -8.2 |
| Water Neos | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 12.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.6% | -16.7 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.3 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disorienting Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadow Resonance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadowstrike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Betraying Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Outlook | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |