← Card Caster Store Championship Mercurial Heart
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Card Caster Store Championship Mercurial Heart
decks
1
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
2-1-0
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.6%
avg ELO +5.0 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1262
· median 1262
· range 1262–1262
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1083
Q1 1163
Q3 1292
1420
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 25.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Water Neos | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
