← Mercurial Heart Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Mercurial Heart Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Zander 1 9.1% 6 83.3% 69.8% 64.3% 64.2% 1552 ↑ top
2 Slimes 4 36.4% 12 54.2% 43.9% 51.6% 44.5% 1448
3 Wind Shadowstrike 4 36.4% 12 45.8% 52.5% 49.8% 54.4% 1521 ↑ top
4 Wind Allies 1 9.1% 1 0.0% 42.4% 40.0% 42.4% 1197 ↓ low
5 Fire Crux Merlin 1 9.1% 3 0.0% 35.4% 36.7% 40.8% 1239 ↓ low