← Store Championship Mercurial Hearts
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship Mercurial Hearts.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 100.0% | 67.5% | 60.0% | 58.4% | 1460 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 62.5% | 57.0% | 55.8% | 55.8% | 1392 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Slimes | 3 | 37.5% | 7 | 42.9% | 46.3% | 48.0% | 48.6% | 1353 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Erupting | 2 | 25.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 38.7% | 46.0% | 45.9% | 1345 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 12.5% | 2 | 25.0% | 42.0% | 41.7% | 42.0% | 1408 | ↑ top |