← Store Championship Mercurial Heart
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship Mercurial Heart.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 100.0% | 64.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | 1408 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Allies | 2 | 25.0% | 4 | 75.0% | 66.3% | 56.0% | 56.8% | 1338 | — |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 52.2% | 56.0% | 52.6% | 1307 | — |
| 4 | Wind Zander | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 46.1% | 48.0% | 49.0% | 1270 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 38.6% | 45.0% | 42.6% | 1452 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 25.0% | 4 | 0.0% | 32.9% | 40.0% | 43.0% | 1278 | ↓ low |