← Store Championship - Mercurial Heart
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship - Mercurial Heart.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Umbra Tristan | 1 | 16.7% | 3 | 100.0% | 73.5% | 60.0% | 60.1% | 1569 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Allies | 1 | 16.7% | 3 | 66.7% | 49.3% | 55.0% | 51.8% | 1376 | — |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 16.7% | 3 | 66.7% | 48.7% | 55.0% | 51.6% | 1423 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Astra Cleric | 1 | 16.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 54.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | 1217 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 33.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 27.6% | 40.0% | 41.1% | 1274 | ↓ low |