← MSG Store Championship September 1st
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at MSG Store Championship September 1st
decks
3
(42.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
1-6-1
overall winrate
18.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
31.0%
avg ELO -9.1 per match
expected value
37.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
39.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1293
· median 1317
· range 1234–1327
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1234
Q1 1322
Q3 1356
1548
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 28.6% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 40.8% | -5.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 14.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.1% | -16.2 |
| Slimes | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
