Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at EVO Store Championship
decks
2
(25.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
1
0-0-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.0%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1233
· median 1233
· range 1146–1319
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1034
Q1 1139
Q3 1336
1560
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 25.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
