← Idle Thought Tournament @ Animangaki 2024
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Idle Thought Tournament @ Animangaki 2024
decks
2
(20.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
7-2-1
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.4%
avg ELO +1.1 per match
expected value
54.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1361
· median 1361
· range 1187–1535
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1187
Q1 1304
Q3 1449
1535
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 20.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 53.2% | +3.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.2 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Wind Overlord | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.8% | +1.7 |
