Idle Thought Tournament @ Animangaki 2024

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Fire Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	2	20.0%	3-4-1	43.8%	49.5%	49.6%	49.9%	1392	—
2		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 1	2	20.0%	7-2-1	75.0%	52.4%	54.8%	50.8%	1361	—
3		Fire Arcane	Tier 2	1	10.0%	1-3-0	25.0%	49.6%	48.0%	50.2%	1322	↓ low
4		Fire Crux Hybrid	Tier 1	1	10.0%	4-2-0	66.7%	51.5%	52.4%	50.4%	1391	—
5		Water Allies	Tier 2	1	10.0%	2-3-0	40.0%	47.9%	47.8%	48.9%	1315	↓ low
6		Water Luxem Assassin	Tier 1	1	10.0%	2-2-0	50.0%	48.2%	50.0%	49.3%	1465	↑ top
7		Wind Allies	Tier 1	1	10.0%	3-2-0	60.0%	52.8%	51.4%	51.0%	1403	—
8		Wind Overlord	Tier 2	1	10.0%	0-4-0	0.0%	46.1%	37.3%	48.1%	1301	↓ low

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Fire Luxem Assassin 2 decks · 20.0%
• Wind Shadowstrike 2 decks · 20.0%
• Fire Arcane 1 deck · 10.0%
• Fire Crux Hybrid 1 deck · 10.0%
• Water Allies 1 deck · 10.0%
• Water Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 10.0%
• Wind Allies 1 deck · 10.0%
• Wind Overlord 1 deck · 10.0%