Fire Crux MageTier 1
at IanTCG Regionals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 29.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.1% | -7.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 5.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |