Fire EruptingTier 2
at IanTCG Regionals
decks
1
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.2%
avg ELO -4.3 per match
expected value
42.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1264
· median 1264
· range 1264–1264
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1099
Q1 1222
Q3 1411
1493
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 29.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Erupting decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
