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Wind AlliesTier 2

at IanTCG Regionals

decks
5 (29.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15 6-8-1
overall winrate
43.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.0% avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
48.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.0% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1212 · median 1222 · range 1099–1320 (5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1099 Q1 1222 Q3 1411 1493
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 60% in the bottom. This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Crux Mage 11.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.7% +0.7
Fire Luxem Assassin 11.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.2% +0.2
Fire Umbra Ranger 11.8% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.3% +0.4
Fire Crux Hybrid 5.9% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 47.1% -2.2
Fire Erupting 5.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.8% +12.5
Water Allies 5.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.0% -12.8
Water Astra Cleric 5.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.4% -15.4
Water Umbra Ranger 5.9% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 56.6% +4.9
Wind Crux Lorraine 5.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.7% -13.3
Decklists · 5 from this event

The 5 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Zephyr, Favorable Winds. Losers more often ran: Esteemed Knight, Shimmercloak Assassin, Trained Hawk.

Played more by winners
Zephyr
Winning decks ran 3.7 copies on average, losing decks 2.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Favorable Winds
Winning decks ran 3.3 copies on average, losing decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Played more by losers
Esteemed Knight
Losing decks ran 3.7 copies on average, winning decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Shimmercloak Assassin
Losing decks ran 2.0 copies on average, winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Trained Hawk
Losing decks ran 2.3 copies on average, winning decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Show all 48 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 43 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Zephyr +1.00 3 0 0
Veiling Breeze -0.67 0 2 0
Sword of Seeking -0.67 0 2 1
Windrider Vanguard -0.67 0 2 1
Deflecting Edge -0.67 0 2 1
Poisoned Coating Oil -0.67 0 2 0
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior -0.67 0 2 1
Resolute Stand +0.67 2 0 0
Rose, Eternal Paragon +0.67 2 0 0
Heavy Swing +0.67 2 0 0
Tonoris, Might of Humanity +0.67 2 0 0
Allied Warpriestess +0.67 2 0 0
Stalwart Shieldmate +0.67 2 0 0
Chalice of Blood +0.67 2 0 0
Quicksilver Grail +0.67 2 0 0
Reclaim -0.33 0 1 0
Esteemed Knight -0.33 1 2 0
Aesan Protector +0.33 1 0 2
Tithe Proclamation +0.33 1 0 2
Shimmercloak Assassin -0.33 1 2 0
Weaponsmith -0.33 0 1 0
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa +0.33 1 0 2
Woodland Squirrels +0.33 1 0 2
Rallied Advance -0.33 0 1 1
Life Essence Amulet -0.33 0 1 0
Second Wind -0.33 0 1 0
Trained Hawk -0.33 1 2 0
Imperial Recruit +0.33 1 0 2
Favorable Winds +0.33 2 1 0
Lorraine, Blademaster -0.33 0 1 1
Fairy Whispers -0.33 0 1 0
Drawn Blade -0.33 0 1 1
Rally the Peasants -0.33 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.33 1 0 1
Eye of Argus -0.33 0 1 0
Tonoris, Lone Mercenary +0.33 1 0 1
Scavenging Raccoon +0.33 1 0 1
Bulwark Sword +0.33 1 0 1
Banner Knight +0.00 1 1 0
Attune with the Winds +0.00 1 1 1
Hurricane Sweep +0.00 1 1 0
Song of Nurturing +0.00 1 1 0
Inspiring Call +0.00 1 1 1
Vanish from Sight +0.00 1 1 0
Swift Recruit +0.00 1 1 1
Phalanx Captain +0.00 1 1 0
Tariff Ring +0.00 1 1 1
Dream Fairy +0.00 1 1 1

JSON: /api/events/1022/archetypes/Wind Allies