← Aria's Cardshop Store Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Aria's Cardshop Store Championship
decks
3
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
4-6-1
overall winrate
40.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.2%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
44.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1249
· median 1221
· range 1190–1334
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1073
Q1 1263
Q3 1442
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 33.0% | -12.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Wind Vanitas | 7.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.2% | +4.0 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
