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Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Aria's Cardshop Store Championship
decks
2
(7.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
2-6-2
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.5%
avg ELO -2.9 per match
expected value
45.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1190
· median 1190
· range 1136–1244
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1073
Q1 1263
Q3 1442
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.9% | +22.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Wind Vanitas | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.1 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Wind Silvie | 3.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.4% | -6.3 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
