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Fire Crux MerlinTier 1
at Aria's Cardshop Store Championship
decks
3
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
12-5-1
overall winrate
69.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.5%
avg ELO +3.3 per match
expected value
55.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1428
· median 1436
· range 1402–1445
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1073
Q1 1263
Q3 1442
1584
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.5% | 8 | 5-2-1 | 68.8% | 62.5% | 57.7% | +3.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.5% | +13.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.1% | -22.2 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Water Neos | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 3.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -3.3 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
