← Yeti Gaming Thursday Weekly 10/17/2024

SlimesTier 1

at Yeti Gaming Thursday Weekly 10/17/2024

decks
11 (19.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
33 17-13-3
overall winrate
56.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.0% avg ELO +0.0 per match
expected value
50.6% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1311 · median 1295 · range 1151–1552 (11 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000 Q1 1202 Q3 1424 1656
27% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 36% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Exia 8.6% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 50.0% +0.0
Wind Allies 8.6% 5 1-4-0 20.0% 33.3% 50.0% +0.0
Water Tera Mage 6.9% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 50.0% +0.0
Fire Crux Mage 5.2% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% +0.0
Water Allies 5.2% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 50.0% +0.0
Water Tera Kongming 5.2% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% +0.0
Water Ravishing Mill 3.4% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% +0.0
Wind Exia 3.4% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% +0.0
Wind Exia Jin 3.4% 0
Wind Razorgale 3.4% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 50.0% +0.0
Wind Tera Mage 3.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.0% +0.0
Fire Aggro 1.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 50.0% +0.0
Fire Astra Cleric 1.7% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% +0.0
Fire Erupting 1.7% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.7% 0
Fire Neos Tonoris 1.7% 0
Fire Silvie 1.7% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 50.0% +0.0
Fire Tera Kongming 1.7% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 50.0% +0.0
Fire Tera Silvie 1.7% 0
Water Astra Arisanna 1.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.0% +0.0
Water Crux Mage 1.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 50.0% +0.0
Water Luxem Assassin 1.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.0% +0.0
Water Umbra Diana 1.7% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.7% 0
Wind Crux Mage 1.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 50.0% +0.0
Wind Shadowstrike 1.7% 0
Wind Slice & Dice 1.7% 0
Wind Tera Kongming 1.7% 0
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Losers more often ran: Tera Sight, Scavenging Raccoon, Reprogram.

Played more by winners

No cards correlated with winning.

Played more by losers
Tera Sight
Losing decks ran 1.0 copy on average, winning decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Scavenging Raccoon
Losing decks ran 1.7 copies on average, winning decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Reprogram
Losing decks ran 2.3 copies on average, winning decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Tera Sight -1.00 0 3 0
Orb of Sealing +0.67 2 0 0
Lustrous Slime +0.67 2 0 1
Resolute Stand +0.33 1 0 2
Dungeon Guide +0.33 1 0 2
Blissful Calling -0.33 0 1 2
Slime's Blessing -0.33 0 1 2
Backup Charger -0.33 0 1 2
Spellshield: Tera +0.33 1 0 0
Scavenging Raccoon -0.33 1 2 0
Gaia's Songbird +0.33 1 0 2
Reprogram -0.33 1 2 0
Escape the Wreckage +0.33 1 0 2
Heavenly Guide -0.33 0 1 0
Invective Instruction +0.33 1 0 0
Ordinary Bear +0.33 1 0 0
Verdant Slime +0.33 1 0 0
Slime King -0.33 0 1 0
Seeking Shot -0.33 0 1 0
Bestial Frenzy +0.33 1 0 0
Hymn of Gaia's Grace +0.00 1 1 1
Turbo Charge +0.00 1 1 1
Twilight Slime +0.00 1 1 1
Baby Blue Slime +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/12571/archetypes/Slimes