← Yeti Gaming Thursday Weekly 10/17/2024
Water Tera MageTier 2
at Yeti Gaming Thursday Weekly 10/17/2024
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Exia | 8.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Allies | 8.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Allies | 5.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 5.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Tera Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 43 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 43 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sweet Ambrosia | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Taiji of Crystal Strategems | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Entrancing Filigree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cone of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shifting Currents | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronal of Rejuvenation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tsunami of Nanyue | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirited Neophyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hydroguard Retainer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Yudi, Gossamer Jade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devoted Bloomweaver | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ebbing Tide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dong Zhou, False Liege | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Covenant of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellshield: Tera | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ruinous Pillars of Qidao | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shard of Empowerment | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wisdom's Reprise | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tera Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ardent Cloudstriker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Formidable Youxia | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Indolent Leisure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rising Tides | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planar Abyss | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |