← Yeti Gaming Thursday Weekly 10/17/2024
Wind AlliesTier 1
at Yeti Gaming Thursday Weekly 10/17/2024
decks
5
(8.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
9-6-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.0%
avg ELO +0.0 per match
expected value
55.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1312
· median 1340
· range 1072–1560
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000
Q1 1202
Q3 1424
1656
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.0% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Exia | 8.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 6.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 5.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Exia Jin | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Veiling Breeze, Favorable Winds, Dream Fairy. Losers more often ran: Dilu, Auspicious Charger, Stifling Trap, Zephyr.
Veiling Breeze
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Favorable Winds
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Dream Fairy
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Dilu, Auspicious Charger
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Stifling Trap
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Zephyr
Losing decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 103 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 97 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Weaponsmith | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Steel Halberd | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Zephyr | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hire Mercenaries | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Infusion of Crescent Jade | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ordinary Horse | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhao Yun, Dragonsblood | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fraternal Garrison | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clean Cut | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Disorienting Winds | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crescent Glaive | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Promising Recruit | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Adept Swordmaster | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shu Frontliner | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Phalanx Captain | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Exia Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Jin, Zealous Maverick | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liu Bei, Oathkeeper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Charged Mannequin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Materialize Polearm | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Swing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhang Fei, Spirited Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Fate Defiant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pierce the Heavens | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rallied Advance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghostsight Glass | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bloodbond Bladesworn | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Executioner's Spear | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slate Whetstone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Andronika, Eternal Herald | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shuang Ji of Sacrifice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cell Vanguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Berserker Plate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regenerate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Undying Resolve | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Oath of the Sakura | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Winbless Rangefinder | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windpiercer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enrage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gearstride Gloves | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Choking Fumes | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windwalker Boots | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Attune with the Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Spy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surveil the Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extraction Incision | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Skirting Step | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |