← Grand Archive Challenger Cup at Campus Game Fest 2024
Water Luxem AssassinTier 1
at Grand Archive Challenger Cup at Campus Game Fest 2024
decks
2
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
7-4-1
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.2%
avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
54.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1246
· median 1246
· range 1209–1284
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1100
Q1 1178
Q3 1393
1633
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Exia | 20.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 53.8% | +2.8 |
| Wind Allies | 17.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.4% | -1.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.7% | -1.2 |
| Slimes | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
