Water Crux LorraineTier 2
at GGA Grand Archive Regional
decks
1
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.1%
avg ELO -5.7 per match
expected value
45.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1144
· median 1144
· range 1144–1144
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1150
Q3 1286
1452
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 16.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -11.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Fire Exia | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Lorraine decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
