Water OverlordTier 2
at GGA Grand Archive Regional
decks
1
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-5-0
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.3%
avg ELO -7.8 per match
expected value
42.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1136
· median 1136
· range 1136–1136
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1150
Q3 1286
1452
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 16.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.2 |
| Wind Allies | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.1% | -15.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Overlord decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
