Water Umbra RangerTier 2
at GGA Grand Archive Regional
decks
1
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-1-2
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.3%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1365
· median 1365
· range 1365–1365
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1150
Q3 1286
1452
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 16.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 13.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -4.7 |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -2.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Water Neos | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Water Overlord | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Ranger decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
