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Fire SlimesTier 1

at Brood en Spelen AMB Regionals

decks
5 (10.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
27 12-12-3
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.2% avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
47.6% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.8% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1266 · median 1281 · range 1094–1464 (5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1074 Q1 1181 Q3 1345 1689
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Penguin Mill 19.6% 9 3-6-0 33.3% 38.5% 44.4% -2.6
Slimes 15.2% 5 1-3-1 30.0% 38.9% 38.7% -6.5
Wind Allies 10.9% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 59.8% +9.4
Water Ravishing Mill 8.7% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 56.6% +6.4
Water Allies 4.3% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.4% +0.4
Wind Shadowstrike 4.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.1% -12.7
Fire Arcane 2.2% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 58.8% +8.5
Fire Crux Mage 2.2% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 2.2% 0
Water Astra Cleric 2.2% 0
Water Luxem Assassin 2.2% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 2.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.2% +14.6
Wind Exia 2.2% 0
Wind Lorraine 2.2% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.4% +0.6
Wind Luxem Assassin 2.2% 0
Wind Razorgale 2.2% 0
Wind Silvie 2.2% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 48.2% -3.0
Wind Slimes 2.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.8% +18.8
Decklists · 5 from this event

The 5 public Fire Slimes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Fragmented Spirit of Fire +1.00 1 0 0
Spirit of Fire -1.00 0 1 0
Unbroken Mustang +1.00 1 0 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +1.00 1 0 0
Blissful Calling -1.00 0 1 0
Forest Cake -1.00 0 1 0
Mystic Purifier -1.00 0 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +1.00 1 0 0
Kind Beastcaller -1.00 0 1 0
Meltdown -1.00 0 1 0
Scavenging Raccoon +1.00 1 0 0
Gaia's Songbird +1.00 1 0 0
Turbo Charge +1.00 1 0 0
Red Slime -1.00 0 1 0
Twilight Slime +1.00 1 0 0
Nullifying Mirror -1.00 0 1 0
Library Witch +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/13026/archetypes/Fire Slimes