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Water Penguin MillTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.2% | 9 | 4-2-3 | 61.1% | 57.7% | 54.9% | +2.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 10.9% | 9 | 6-3-0 | 66.7% | 61.5% | 55.6% | +2.6 |
| Wind Allies | 10.9% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 66.0% | +10.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.7% | 6 | 0-5-1 | 8.3% | 25.0% | 26.8% | -12.4 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -2.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 35.5% | -10.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.9 |
| Wind Exia | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.9% | +9.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Wind Silvie | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.7% | +9.3 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.8 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Rimesoul Bishop, Frostbind, Awakened Deacon. Losers more often ran: Tidestone Bovine, Song of Frost, Cerulean Decree.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rimesoul Bishop | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Freezing Steel | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Awakened Deacon | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |